Climate Change Projections in Mediterranean Arid Regions: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Algerian Sahara

https://doi-001.org/1025/17626124997544

ZAGHOUANI Ameur^1,2*., Chaima Chetioui^3,4., and HADJEB Ayoub^1,2.

¹ Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Biskra, Algeria

² Research Laboratory of Ecosystem Diversity and Dynamics of Agricultural Production Systems in Drylands – DEDSPAZA, University of Biskra, Algeria

3 Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sétif 1, Sétif 19000, Algeria

4 Plant and Animal Production Improvement Laboratory, University of Sétif 1, Sétif 19000, Algeria 

*Corresponding authors: ameur.zaghouani@univ-biskra.dz

Abstract

Arid regions in northern part of Algerian Sahara are highly vulnerable to climate change, facing rising temperatures and declining precipitation that intensify droughts and strain ecosystems and water resources. These shifts jeopardize agriculture and livelihoods, making future climate predictions vital for developing effective adaptation strategies. This study aims to explore the scenarios of climate change in Biskra region under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios for 2035, 2055, and 2075 and highlights key trends in precipitation and temperature. Main findings show a general decline in average precipitation, dropping from 138.3 mm in 2035 to 122.4 mm in 2075, with variations across scenarios. In the optimistic SSP1-1.9 scenario (low emissions), precipitation remains relatively stable, while high-emission scenarios like SSP3-7 and SSP5-8.5 project sharper declines to 102.5 mm and 110.2 mm by 2075, respectively. Temperature forecasts indicate a steady rise in maximum, minimum, and average values. In SSP1-1.9, maximum temperatures slightly decrease from 27.9°C in 2035 to 27.8°C in 2075, and minimum temperatures dip from 16.8°C to 16.7°C. Conversely, in the severe SSP5-8.5 scenario, maximum temperatures climb from 28.2°C to 31°C, and minimum temperatures reach 19.8°C by 2075. Optimistic scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6) show modest temperature increases and stable precipitation, underscoring the benefits of emission reductions. Pessimistic scenarios (SSP3-7, SSP5-8.5), however, predict significant temperature spikes and precipitation drops, heightening drought and water scarcity risks. These findings stress the urgent need for robust climate strategies in arid regions like Biskra to mitigate worsening impacts on the existing farming system, water availability, and local communities.

Keywords: Climate change, arid regions, precipitation, temperature, SSP scenarios.

1. INTRODUCTION

The Mediterranean basin, which extends from the southern coasts of Europe to North Africa and the Near East, is widely identified as a region particularly sensitive to climate change, marked by an amplification of global warming and aridification trends (Giorgi, 2006). This vulnerability is exacerbated in arid zones, which dominate the southern part of the region, particularly in Algeria where more than 80% of the territory consists of Saharan deserts and semi-arid steppes. These areas, already subjected to severe water and thermal constraints, are undergoing accelerated transformations due to rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and the intensification of climatic extremes, such as heatwaves and prolonged droughts (Lionello & Scarascia, 2018). In Algeria, the impacts of these changes threaten not only fragile ecosystems but also socio-economic systems dependent on agriculture, livestock, and limited water resources, amplifying the risks of desertification and migration (Cramer et al., 2018).

The Mediterranean region is identified as a critical hotspot of climate change, exhibiting warming trends that exceed the global average. This is particularly evident in the western Mediterranean, where long-term trends account for approximately 65% of the observed temperature variation (Campos et al., 2024; Díaz et al., 2024). In the arid regions of Algeria, summer temperatures frequently reach extreme levels, with heatwaves driving temperatures to 45°C and even 50°C. The frequency of heat days, defined as days when temperatures exceed 35°C, is projected to increase significantly under various climate scenarios, with more severe impacts anticipated in higher-emission scenarios (Pongrácz et al., 2024).

At the same time, precipitation, which often falls below 200 mm∙year^-1 in these areas, undergoes a significant decrease. The study by (Zittis et al., 2020) projected, based on CMIP6 models including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), a reduction of 15 to 40% in rainfall by 2100, depending on emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5), with more pronounced impacts in the semi-arid regions of northern Algeria, where winter rains are becoming increasingly erratic (Tramblay & Somot, 2018). The reduction in precipitation and the increase in evaporation rates threaten the sustainability of water resources essential to Saharan oases (Sirigu et al., 2024). In terms of water resources,(Milly & Dunne, 2020) highlighted that Mediterranean arid zone, including Algeria, could see their surface water resources decrease by 30 to 50% by 2050 in intermediate scenarios, increasing dependence on already overexploited aquifers.

The biodiversity of the Biskra region is threatened by climate-induced changes in water availability, which impact habitats and the reproductive cycles of species. This may lead to shifts in species distribution and potential extinctions, particularly for those with specific adaptations to water resource availability (Demir, 2009; Ojija & Nicholaus, 2023). Ecosystem services, such as pollination and carbon sequestration, are also compromised, affecting both natural ecosystems and agricultural productivity (Demir, 2009). The loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services has cascading effects on food security and economic stability, especially for communities reliant on agriculture (Ojija & Nicholaus, 2023).

Biskra region is experiencing increased desertification due to climate change, which results from rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. This process leads to soil degradation, the loss of arable land, and a decline in agricultural yields. The degradation of soil quality is a critical consequence, leading to a reduction in soil fertility and an increase in salinity. This impacts the soil’s capacity to retain nutrients and water, which is essential for agricultural productivity (Badapalli et al., 2023b; Belghemmaz et al., 2018). As desertification advances, an increasing amount of land becomes unsuitable for agriculture, resulting in a decrease in available arable land. This affects food security and the livelihoods of communities dependent on agriculture (Badapalli et al., 2023a). The combined effects of soil degradation and the loss of arable land contribute to a decline in agricultural yields. This decline poses a significant threat to the region’s economy, which heavily relies on agriculture (Badapalli et al., 2023a; Mandal & Roy, 2024). The principal objective of our work is to reveal anticipated alterations in temperature and precipitation during three intervals of the twenty-first century in the susceptible Biskra region, providing essential insights for developing effective climate change adaptation and resilience methods. This research addresses the scarcity of climate change studies in the northeastern Algerian Sahara, serving as a pivotal advancement that encourages additional investigation through various climate models and scenarios, as well as an analysis of prospective alterations in climate extremes.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1. Study area

The province of Biskra is located in the northeastern part of the Algerian Sahara, roughly 420 kilometers southeast of the capital, with an area of 21 509 square kilometers. Biskra is bordered to the North by the Batna province, to the Northeast by the Khenchela, to the Northwest by Msila, to the Southeast by Oued Souf, to the Southwest by Djelfa, and to the South by Ourgla province. As noted by (Boudibi, 2021),

the climate of Biskra is classified as hot desert (Köppen classification), with annual rainfall not exceeding 150 mm, evaporation reaching 2500 mm, and temperatures ranging between 11 °C in January and 35 °C in July. The study area’s geography is predominantly flat, characterized by undulating hills and mountain ranges, with a minimum altitude of 43 m in the Oumache region and a maximum of 283 m in the western section of the region. Geologically, the major part of the study area is classified as recent Quaternary, facilitating groundwater recharge and presence (Boudibi, 2021; Sedrati, 2011). The soils in the Saharan zone of Algeria, like those in other arid locations, possess elevated levels of soluble salts, a phenomenon resulting from limited precipitation that hinders the leaching process (Halilet, 1998). Biskra was selected as a model for Mediterranean arid regions due to its pronounced vulnerability to desertification and water scarcity, making it an ideal case study for climate change impacts. These environmental characteristics provide a critical foundation for understanding how climate change affects the region.

Figure 1. Map for the localization of the study area, Biskra region

The Biskra region in Algeria faces significant challenges due to climate change, primarily driven by desertification, urban transformation, and water scarcity. These challenges are compounded by the region’s arid climate and socio-economic factors, which collectively threaten ecological balance and regional sustainability. The following sections elaborate on the specific challenges Biskra encounters in the context of climate change.

Biskra is experiencing severe desertification, a process accelerated by both human activities and natural climate shifts. The encroachment of sand from the Sahara Desert into urban areas disrupts daily life and infrastructure (Azzouzi et al., 2017). The El-Outaya region in Biskra is particularly affected, with desertification leading to land degradation and a decline in agricultural productivity (lydia, 2023). The urban transformation of Biskra has resulted in the degradation of its natural heritage, notably the oasis system. This transformation has led to the loss of palm groves and the oasis identity, impacting its ecological balance and tourism potential (Berbache et al., 2022). Additionally, urban expansion has contributed to the deterioration of microclimatic quality, affecting pedestrian behavior and urban livability (Boumaraf & Amireche, 2022).

Biskra faces significant water scarcity issues, exacerbated by reduced precipitation due to climate change and increased evaporation rates (Lange, 2023; Nichane & Khelil, 2015). The region’s soils exhibit high salinity levels, particularly gypsum, further complicating agricultural activities and water management (Mostephaoui et al., 2017).

The MENA region, including Biskra, is identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of extreme heatwaves and prolonged heat periods. These conditions heighten the demand for energy-intensive cooling solutions, placing significant strain on local resources (Lange, 2023). The anticipated rise in temperatures and decline in precipitation are likely to intensify existing water and energy challenges, necessitating integrated adaptation strategies (Lange, 2019).

While these challenges are substantial, it is critical to consider the broader context of climate change adaptation in the MENA region. Effective adaptation strategies, such as implementing the water-energy nexus and adopting renewable energy sources, can mitigate some of these impacts. Furthermore, innovative irrigation technologies and sustainable urban planning can help preserve Biskra’s natural and cultural heritage while addressing the socio-economic needs of its population. These strategies require coordinated efforts and substantial investment but offer a pathway toward resilience in the face of climate change.

2.2. Modelling procedure

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) constitute a set of scenarios developed to explore alternative futures characterized by diverse challenges related to climate change mitigation and adaptation (O’Neill et al., 2014). These pathways provide a framework for understanding how varying socioeconomic developments can influence greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and other critical factors pertinent to climate change research. The SSPs are designed to be scalable across different regions and sectors, rendering them a versatile tool for integrated assessment models and impact studies (Kriegler et al., 2012; O’Neill et al., 2017). The SSPs offer the socioeconomic context necessary for analyzing the impacts of climate change. They assist researchers in comprehending how different future scenarios may affect vulnerability and adaptive capacities (Reimann et al., 2018; Rohat et al., 2018). The global storylines that have been employed in the study are summarized in Table 1. The narratives are discussed and described in further detail by (Zhang et al., 2024).

Table 1. Summary of SSP narratives

The CMIP6 represents the most ambitious phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), encompassing 21 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) and 190 experiments. These simulations span 40,000 years of climate data, generating approximately 40 petabytes of data (Acosta et al., 2024). Over the past four decades, the project has evolved, enhancing the representation of the Earth system while addressing systematic biases, variability, and. The CMIP6 data infrastructure facilitates the dissemination of climate model outputs, which are critical for international climate assessments and policymaking (Hewitt & Dunne, 2024).

Particularly, CMIP6 models project significant shifts in global climate zones, with a marked acceleration attributed to higher warming rates compared to previous iterations, such as CMIP5 (Bayar et al., 2023). The performance of CMIP6 models has been evaluated in specific regions, such as the IGAD region in East Africa, where they generally capture precipitation regimes but exhibit biases and overestimations (Omay et al., 2023).

Data sources

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), IPCC updates global climate change models, which are organized by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and used in conjunction with IPCC Climate Scenarios (Harrison, 2019). Since CMIP6 was suggested in the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report, it was chosen for use and serves as the foundation for this investigation.

The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (2025) provided the climate data (from 1995 to 2014). These data include monthly averages of temperatures, precipitation, and evaporation rates, derived from observational records and reanalysis products.

As for the future projections, they were extracted from the CMIP6 archive via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) portal. Eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) listed in Table 2 were selected based on their performance in simulating arid climates. The bias in the model outputs was corrected, and their accuracy was reduced to a 0.5° × 0.5° grid using the quantile mapping technique. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/

Execution procedures

The study integrated SSP scenarios with CMIP6 projections to assess the impacts of climate change in Biskra under five pathways (SSP1-SSP5). Each pathway was linked to an appropriate radiative concentration pathway (RCP): SSP1 with RCP2.6, SSP2 with RCP4.5, SSP3 with RCP7.0, SSP4 with RCP6.0, and SSP5 with RCP8.5. The simulations were run for three-time horizons: short-term (2025-2050), medium-term (2051-2075), and long-term (2076-2100), using 1995-2014 as the baseline period. The analysis focused on temperatures, precipitation, and evaporation. An ensemble approach was used to reduce uncertainty, with averages calculated across the nine models using OriginPro 2025.

Table 2. General circulation models for the study.

3. RESULTS

3.1. Results of the SSP scenarios

3.1.1. Predictions of annual precipitation

Figure 2. Predictions of annual precipitation for the arid region of Biskra under SSP scenarios for the years 2035, 2055, and 2075 in comparison to the period 1995–2014.

Figure 02 presents projections of annual precipitation for the arid region of Biskra under various SSP scenarios, indicating a gradual decline in average precipitation from 138.31 mm in 2035 to 128.11 mm in 2055, and further to 122.41 mm in 2075. The comparison among scenarios reveals divergent trends based on emission trajectories. Under SSP1-1.9, characterized by low emissions and strong commitments to sustainability, precipitation remains relatively stable, suggesting that effective mitigation strategies could help preserve the regional hydrological balance. Similarly, the SSP1-2.6 scenario shows an increase in precipitation in 2055 (144.32 mm), but this is preceded and followed by decreases in 2035 (133.48 mm) and 2075 (131.82 mm), possibly reflecting regional climate variability. In contrast, SSP2-4.5 indicates a significant drop in 2055 (110.88 mm), with higher values in 2035 (140.26 mm) and 2075 (132.29 mm), suggesting a less stable pattern. The high-emission scenarios, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, display substantial reductions over time. For SSP3-7.0, precipitation declines from 132.71 mm in 2035 to 123.27 mm in 2055 and 102.57 mm in 2075. SSP5-8.5 shows a similar trajectory, with values decreasing from 146.33 mm (2035) to 128.24 mm (2055) and 110.29 mm (2075). These results underscore the potential impacts of emission-intensive pathways on water availability in arid regions.

3.1.2. Prediction of maximum temperature

Figure 3. Prediction of maximum temperature for the arid area of Biskra under SSP scenarios in 2035, 2055, and 2075, compared to the period of 1995–2014.

Based on (figure 3), the projections of maximum temperatures for the years 2035, 2055, and 2075 in Biskra. The SSP1-1.9 scenario predicts that maximum temperatures will rise slightly, then drop slightly between 2035 (27.98°C) and 2055 (28.14°C) and 2075 (27.88°C). The SSP1-2.6 scenario, which is not as optimistic, also predicts that maximum temperatures will rise slowly, reaching 28.72°C in 2075, 28.61°C in 2055, and 28.09°C in 2035. This is still in line with the goal of keeping warming to 2°C. The SSP2-4.5 scenario, which assumes stabilization of emissions in the medium term, indicates a continuous increase in maximum temperatures, rising from 28.37°C in 2035 to 28.92°C in 2055 and 29.37°C in 2075. The SSP3-7.0 scenario, predicts an even more pronounced increase, with a maximum temperature reaching 30.01°C in 2075, compared to 28.18°C in 2035 and 29.18°C in 2055. Finally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the most alarming rise in maximum temperatures, reaching 31.08°C in 2075 compared to 28.26°C in 2035 and 29.69°C in 2055.

3.1.3. Prediction of minimum temperature

Figure 4. Prediction of minimum temperature for the arid area of Biskra under SSP scenarios in 2035, 2055, and 2075, compared to the period of 1995–2014.

According to the (figure 4), in all scenarios, minimum temperatures show an upward trend over time. But the size of this rise is different for each scenario. The SSP3-7 and SSP5-8.5 pathways, which assume high emissions and little climate change mitigation, have the biggest rises. The analysis of the scenarios reveals contrasting dynamics.

The SSP1-1.9 scenario predicts that temperatures will rise slightly in 2035 (16.80°C) and again in 2055 (16.96°C). After that, they will level off or even go down slightly by 2075 (16.75°C). Similarly, the SSP1–2.6 scenario indicates a progression of temperatures between 16.72°C in 2035, 17.32°C in 2055, and 17.39°C. The SSP2-4.5 scenario, on the other hand, shows that temperatures will keep going up: 17.18°C in 2035, 17.67°C in 2055, and 18.20°C in 2075.  The SSP3-7 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, characterised by high emissions, show temperatures of 17.11°C, 17.90°C, and 18.75°C for SSP3-7, and 17.1°C, 18.35°C, and 19.80°C for the years 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively.

Weak climate action shows the temperature increases were more pronounced and reached concerning levels in 2075, particularly in SSP5-8.5 shows the highest increase, with a projected minimum temperature of around 19.8°C.

3.1.4. Prediction of mean temperature

Figure 5. Prediction of mean temperature for the arid area of Biskra under SSP scenarios in 2035, 2055, and 2075, compared to the period of 1995–2014.

The (figure 5) indicates that the future projections of average temperatures in the arid Biskra area under the (SSP1-1.9) scenario are  22.41°C, 22.51°C, and 22.32°C in 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively. The scenario (SSP1-2.6), suggests to a gradual increase in temperatures, reaching 22.4, 22.97, and 23.03°C in 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively.

The scenario (SSP2-4.5) results in a continuous increase in temperatures, reaching 22.77°C, 23.31°C, and 23.79°C in 2035, 2055, and 2075. The SSP5-8.5 scenario is particularly alarming, with a significant increase in temperatures reaching 22.77°C, 23.98°C, and 25.43°C in 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively.

4. Discussion

The projection of future precipitation and temperatures in arid regions involves the analysis of various climate scenarios. The study provides information on the expected trends and variations in precipitation and temperatures in different arid regions, using a range of CMIP6 models under the five scenarios SSPs. These forecasts are crucial for water resource management and understanding the impacts of climate change on these vulnerable areas.

Climate models, like as CMIP6 and CMIP5, indicate a global decline in precipitation areas, particularly between 5° and 50° latitude, impacting countries like the Middle East. This reduction is associated with rising temperatures and a change in precipitation patterns toward the poles (Dobler et al., 2023). The Mediterranean, is expected to experience a decrease in average daily precipitation of 15 to 30% by the end of the century, despite an increase in the frequency of atmospheric rivers (Massoud et al., 2022).

The variation in precipitation is expected to be between -77.3 mm and +51.1 mm compared to the reference period (Mesgari et al., 2022). Throughout Algeria, including Biskra, a decrease in average precipitation is expected, particularly under higher emission scenarios such as SSP5-8.5. This corresponds to the general trend of “the dry becoming drier” observed in arid regions (Babaousmail et al., 2022; Mesgari et al., 2022).

These projections suggest significant impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. These projections are essential for understanding potential challenges and formulating adaptive strategies. Studies indicate a general trend of decreasing precipitation, which could exacerbate water scarcity, affect agricultural productivity, and lead to ecosystem degradation. This overview transitions to a detailed examination of the specific impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources.

The reduction in precipitation is likely to accelerate desertification processes, as a decrease in precipitation can lead to the early disappearance of vegetation, an essential component of semi-arid ecosystems (Dixon, 2017). The reduction in water availability can lead to habitat loss and a decrease in biodiversity, as many species in these regions are adapted to specific humidity conditions (Scholes, 2020). The rise in temperatures, combined with the reduction in precipitation, increases evapotranspiration rates, which puts a strain on water-limited ecosystems (Wang et al., 2024).

Agriculture in these arid areas, heavily dependent on precipitation, could face a decline in yields due to water scarcity. The anticipated decrease in precipitation during critical growing seasons could have serious repercussions on crop productivity (Tomaszkiewicz, 2021).

With less precipitation, dependence on irrigation will increase, but water resources may not be sufficient to meet agricultural demand, necessitating more efficient irrigation practices (Madani et al., 2024). The reduction in precipitation can lead to soil erosion and degradation, further decreasing the quality and productivity of agricultural lands (Scholes, 2020).

The expected decrease in precipitation will worsen the water shortage, affecting both surface water and groundwater resources. This shortage poses a significant challenge for water resource management in the region (Abdullaeva, 2024). The decrease in precipitation and the increase in temperatures are expected to reduce runoff, which will impact the availability of water for various uses, including domestic, agricultural, and industrial (Wang et al., 2024). Existing hydraulic infrastructures may struggle to cope with increased demand and reduced supply, highlighting the need to improve water management strategies (Nichane & Khelil, 2014).

Although projections indicate variable precipitation trends in different arid regions, it is important to take into account the uncertainties inherent in climate modeling. Factors such as model selection, emission scenarios, and regional climatic conditions can significantly influence the results. Furthermore, the interaction between increased precipitation and rising temperatures could lead to complex hydrological responses, necessitating a nuanced approach to climate adaptation strategies. The projected maximum temperature for the arid region of Biskra, according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, indicates a significant increase in temperature by 2035, 2055, and 2075 compared to the reference period of 1995-2014. The projections are based on various climate scenarios, which suggest a trend of rising temperatures due to climate change. The increase in maximum temperatures is expected to be more pronounced in higher emission scenarios, reflecting the global trend of rising temperatures in arid and semi-arid regions.

According to the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the maximum temperature in Biskra is expected to increase by approximately 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C compared to the reference period. This increase is consistent with the general warming trend observed in the MENA region, where maximum temperatures are expected to rise significantly in medium emission scenarios (ABED & Selmane, 2023; Almazroui et al., 2021).

The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a more significant increase in maximum temperatures, potentially reaching 3.0 °C to 4.0 °C above the baseline value. This scenario represents a high emissions trajectory, which aligns with the results indicating that the intensity of the hottest days is expected to increase further in extratropical regions, including parts of Algeria (ABED, 2021; Babaousmail et al., 2022). According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the maximum temperature could increase by 4.0 °C to 5.0 °C. This projection is supported by studies indicating that the Sahara region, including Biskra, will experience significant warming, with maximum temperatures potentially reaching extreme levels by the end of the century (ABED & Selmane, 2023; Lelieveld et al., 2016).

Although the models provide a general trend of rising temperatures, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact magnitude of the change due to differences between the results and the assumptions of the models. However, the multi-model ensemble mean is considered more reliable for projecting future climate changes (Ntoumos et al., 2022; Zhao et al., 2014).

Unlike the projected increases in maximum temperatures, the potential impacts of these changes on local ecosystems, water resources, and human health are the subject of broader discussion. The arid region of Biskra, like other regions of Steppe regions in Algeria, may face challenges related to water scarcity and thermal stress, requiring adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the expected climatic extremes. These projections highlight the importance of global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and implement effective climate adaptation measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change in vulnerable regions like Biskra. The projection of temperature in arid zones constitutes an essential area of study due to the sensitivity of these regions to climate change.

The increase in maximum temperatures is expected to amplify the water limitations of the ecosystem, thereby reducing the cooling capacity through evaporation due to plant transpiration and soil evaporation. This can lead to significant changes in ecosystem functioning and a loss of biodiversity (Denissen et al., 2023, 2024)). Arid and semi-arid regions are likely to experience increased soil degradation and loss of biodiversity due to rising temperatures and reduced water availability. These changes threaten the sustainability of local ecosystems and the services they provide (Abdullah et al., 2019; Maestre et al., 2012). The rise in temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are expected to significantly reduce crop yields. Without adaptation, agricultural production in arid regions could decrease by 50% or more, which would impact food security and agricultural incomes (Phetheet et al., 2021).

The rise in temperatures is expected to reduce water availability by increasing evaporation and decreasing precipitation. This will impact surface water resources, leading to a reduction in flow and water production in arid regions (Abdullaeva, 2024; Al-Hasani et al., 2023). Advanced hydrological models and climate projections are essential for developing effective water management strategies. These models help forecast the evolution of water availability and guide policymakers in implementing adaptive measures (Abdullaeva, 2024).

Although the focus is on adaptive strategies for agriculture, it is important to take into account the broader socio-economic and environmental context. The impacts of climate change are not limited to agriculture but also affect water resources, energy production, and social stability. The integration of renewable energy production and the strengthening of social resilience can provide additional support to rural communities facing climate challenges (Herrick & Beh, 2015; Phetheet et al., 2021).

Furthermore, it is essential to understand the interactions between climate change, soil resilience, and social stability for effective adaptation planning (Herrick & Beh, 2015). These broader perspectives highlight the need for a holistic approach to climate change adaptation in arid regions like Biskra, Algeria. Technological interventions, such as precision agriculture, integrated nutrient management, and resilient cropping systems, are essential for adapting agriculture in arid zones to climate change (Ahmed et al., 2022). In Central Asia, adaptation strategies for crops such as cotton and spring wheat include modifying agroclimatic practices based on changing conditions, as predicted by regional climate models (Shkolnik et al., 2019). The use of advanced climate models and machine learning can provide information on temperature and precipitation patterns, thereby contributing to the development of effective water management strategies (Abdullaeva, 2024). Although projections indicate a challenging future for agriculture in arid regions, there are opportunities for adaptation and mitigation. For example, the potential for expanding agriculture from arid zones into hyper-arid regions, where the availability of green water can increase, represents a unique opportunity for sustainable agricultural practices (Shahsavari et al., 2019). Furthermore, the integration of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative efforts among stakeholders can enhance resilience and ensure food security in these vulnerable areas.

5. Conclusion

The projections indicate a decrease in precipitation and a noticeable increase in temperatures in the Arid Biskra region using a range of CMIP6 models under the five scenarios SSPs; most notably, the SSP1-1.9 scenario indicates a lower rate of temperature rise in the other half. The mean temperature is predicted by SSP8.5 to increase to 22.41°C, 22.51°C, and 22.32°C in 2035, 2055, and 2075. In the other half of the year, SSP8.5 predicts that the temperature would rise to 22.77°C, 23.98°C, and 25.43°C in 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively. The SSP1-1.9 scenario forecasts a modest increase in the minimum temperature in 2035 (16.80°C) and another in 2055 (16.96°C). By 2075, they will level out or even significantly decrease (16.75°C). High-emission scenarios, such as SSP5-8.5, display temperatures of 17.1°C, 18.35°C, and 19.80°C for the years 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively. According to the SSP1-1.9 scenario, maximum temperatures will slightly increase in 2035, 2055, and 2075, respectively, before significantly decreasing in 2035 (27.98°C), 2055 (28.14°C), and 2075 (27.88°C). Last but not least, the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which is predicated on robust economic expansion and a greater reliance on fossil fuels, exhibits the most concerning increase in maximum temperatures, rising to 31.08°C in 2075 from 28.26°C in 2035 and 29.69°C in 2055.The average precipitation, however, decreased gradually between 2035, 2055, and 2075, from 138.314 mm in 2035 to 128.11 mm in 2055 and 122.406 mm in 2075, according to the examination of general trends.

The lack of climate change research in the northeastern Algerian Sahara is addressed by this study, which is a significant step that motivates more research using other climate models and scenarios and an examination of potential changes in climate extremes.

Reference

1. Abdullaeva, B. S. (2024). Integrating advanced approaches for climate change impact assessment on water resources in arid regions. Journal of Water and Land Development, 60. https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2024.149116
2. Abdullah, M. M., Assi, A. T., & Asadalla, N. B. (2019). Integrated Ecosystem Sustainability Approach : Toward a Holistic System of Thinking of Managing Arid Ecosystems. Open Journal of Ecology, 9(11), 493.
3. ABED, S. S. (2021). Future Climate Projections in Algeria Using Statistical DownScaling Model. https://scholar.archive.org/work/lgvsud4bu5hcvkngmjofnq5jki/access/wayback/https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-627355/v1_covered.pdf?c=1626188479
4. ABED, S. S., & Selmane, A. N.-E.-I. (2023). Spatiotemporal projections of extreme Temperatures over Algeria using CMIP6-MME global climate models outputs. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Salah-Sahabi-Abed/publication/375462040_Spatiotemporal_projections_of_extreme_Temperatures_over_Algeria_using_CMIP6-MME_global_climate_models_outputs/links/654b3d6cce88b87031d440dc/Spatiotemporal-projections-of-extreme-Temperatures-over-Algeria-using-CMIP6-MME-global-climate-models-outputs.pdf
5. Acosta, M. C., Palomas, S., Paronuzzi Ticco, S. V., Utrera, G., Biercamp, J., Bretonniere, P.-A., Budich, R., Castrillo, M., Caubel, A., Doblas-Reyes, F., Epicoco, I., Fladrich, U., Joussaume, S., Kumar Gupta, A., Lawrence, B., Le Sager, P., Lister, G., Moine, M.-P., Rioual, J.-C., … Balaji, V. (2024). The computational and energy cost of simulation and storage for climate science : Lessons from CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 17(8), 3081‑3098. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024
6. Ahmed, M., Hayat, R., Ahmad, M., ul-Hassan, M., Kheir, A. M. S., ul-Hassan, F., ur-Rehman, M. H., Shaheen, F. A., Raza, M. A., & Ahmad, S. (2022). Impact of Climate Change on Dryland Agricultural Systems : A Review of Current Status, Potentials, and Further Work Need. International Journal of Plant Production, 16(3), 341‑363. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-022-00197-1
7. Al-Hasani, I., Al-Qinna, M., & Hammouri, N. A. (2023). Potential impacts of climate change on surface water resources in arid regions using downscaled regional circulation model and soil water assessment tool, a case study of Amman-Zerqa Basin, Jordan. Climate, 11(3), 51.
8. Almazroui, M., Saeed, F., Saeed, S., Ismail, M., Ehsan, M. A., Islam, M. N., Abid, M. A., O’Brien, E., Kamil, S., Rashid, I. U., & Nadeem, I. (2021). Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions. Earth Systems and Environment, 5(3), 481‑497. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00250-5
9. Azzouzi, S. A., Vidal-Pantaleoni, A., & Bentounes, H. A. (2017). Desertification Monitoring in Biskra, Algeria, With Landsat Imagery by Means of Supervised Classification and Change Detection Methods. IEEE Access, 5, 9065‑9072. IEEE Access. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2017.2700405
10. Babaousmail, H., Hou, R., Ayugi, B., Sian, K. T. C. L. K., Ojara, M., Mumo, R., Chehbouni, A., & Ongoma, V. (2022). Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using bias‐corrected CMIP6 models. International Journal of Climatology, 42(14), 7280‑7297. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7644
11. Badapalli, P. K., Kottala, R. B., & Pujari, P. S. (2023a). Impact of Desertification in Semi-arid Regions. In P. K. Badapalli, R. B. Kottala, & P. S. Pujari, Aeolian Desertification (p. 95‑100). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6729-2_6
12. Badapalli, P. K., Kottala, R. B., & Pujari, P. S. (2023b). Land Degradation and Desertification. In P. K. Badapalli, R. B. Kottala, & P. S. Pujari, Aeolian Desertification (p. 13‑49). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6729-2_2
13. Bayar, A. S., Yılmaz, M. T., Yücel, İ., & Dirmeyer, P. (2023). CMIP6 Earth System Models Project Greater Acceleration of Climate Zone Change Due To Stronger Warming Rates. Earth’s Future, 11(4), e2022EF002972. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002972
14. Belghemmaz, S., Fenni, M., Afrasinei, G. M., Louadj, Y., & Degui, N. (2018). Assessment of Land Degradation Related to Groundwater Irrigation of Oasis Environments : (Case Study: The Zibans, Biskra, Algeria). In A. Kallel, M. Ksibi, H. Ben Dhia, & N. Khélifi (Éds.), Recent Advances in Environmental Science from the Euro-Mediterranean and Surrounding Regions (p. 1289‑1290). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70548-4_378
15. Berbache, H., Khaoui, M., & Hadjab, M. (2022). The Oasis System in Southern Algeria : A Natural Heritage Threatened with Disappearance, Case of the Oasis of Biskra. Technium Social Sciences Journal, 34, 588.
16. Boudibi, S. (2021). Modeling the Impact of Irrigation Water Quality on Soil Salinization in an Arid Region, Case of Biskra. D. Thesis, Mohamed Khider University of Biskra, Biskra, Algeria, 175.
17. Boumaraf, H., & Amireche, L. (2022). Microclimatic quality of urban routes and pedestrian behavior in arid zones case of the city of Biskra, South-East Algeria. Frontiers in Engineering and Built Environment, 3(2), 93‑107. https://doi.org/10.1108/FEBE-04-2022-0015
18. Campos, D. A., Olmo, M. E., Cos, P., Muñoz, A. G., & Doblas-Reyes, F. (2024). Regional aspects of the recent observed trends in the Western Mediterranean : Insights from a Timescale Decomposition Analysis. Authorea Preprints. https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.172838619.92296453
19. Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Fader, M., Garrabou, J., Gattuso, J.-P., Iglesias, A., Lange, M. A., Lionello, P., Llasat, M. C., Paz, S., Peñuelas, J., Snoussi, M., Toreti, A., Tsimplis, M. N., & Xoplaki, E. (2018). Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean. Nature Climate Change, 8(11), 972‑980. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2
20. Demir, A. (2009). Küresel iklim değişikliğinin biyolojik çeşitlilik ve ekosistem kaynakları üzerine etkisi. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 1(2), 37‑54.
21. Denissen, J. M., Teuling, A. J., Koirala, S., Reichstein, M., Balsamo, G., Vogel, M. M., Yu, X., & Orth, R. (2023). Intensified future heat extremes linked with increasing ecosystem water limitation. EGUsphere, 2023, 1‑27.
22. Denissen, J. M., Teuling, A. J., Koirala, S., Reichstein, M., Balsamo, G., Vogel, M. M., Yu, X., & Orth, R. (2024). Intensified future heat extremes linked with increasing ecosystem water limitation. Earth System Dynamics, 15(3), 717‑734.
23. Díaz, D. C., Olmo, M., Muñoz, A., Doblas-Reyes, F., & Cos, J. (2024). Disentangle the climate variability over the Western Mediterranean in the midst of climate change. Copernicus Meetings. https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2024/EMS2024-613.html
24. Dixon, S. A. (2017). A stochastic model for water-vegetation systems and the effect of decreasing precipitation on semi-arid environments. Utah State University. https://search.proquest.com/openview/b17406678b2692fb7f520b39931ec861/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750
25. Dobler, A., Benestad, R., Lussana, C., Lutz, J., Landgren, O., Haugen, J. E., Mezghani, A., & Parding, K. M. (2023). Decrease of the global precipitation area in CMIP6 projections. Copernicus Meetings. https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2023/EMS2023-546.html
26. Giorgi, F. (2006). Climate change hot-spots. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734
27. Halilet, M. T. (1998). Étude Expérimentale de Sable Additionnée d’Argile. Comportement Physique et Organisation Saline et Sodique. D. Thesis, I.N.A.P.G., Paris, France, 250.
28. harrisson, (2019, décembre 2). CMIP6 : The next generation of climate models explained. Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained/
29. Herrick, J. E., & Beh, A. (2015). A Risk-Based Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation in Dryland Systems Based on an Understanding of Potential Production, Soil Resistance and Resilience, and Social Stability. In R. Lal, B. R. Singh, D. L. Mwaseba, D. Kraybill, D. O. Hansen, & L. O. Eik (Éds.), Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa (p. 407‑424). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09360-4_22
30. Hewitt, H., & Dunne, J. (2024). Evolving The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) To Better Support The Climate Community And Future Climate Assessments. 6364. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6364
31. Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B. C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R. J., Moss, R. H., & Wilbanks, T. (2012). The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis : A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, 22(4), 807‑822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005
32. Lange, M. A. (2019). Impacts of Climate Change on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa Region and the Water–Energy Nexus. Atmosphere, 10(8), Article 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080455
33. Lange, M. A. (2023). Extreme Climate Changes in the MENA Region : Their Impacts and Effective Adaptation Strategies. EGU-4991. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4991
34. Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Zittis, G. (2016). Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Climatic Change, 137(1‑2), 245‑260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
35. Lionello, P., & Scarascia, L. (2018). The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming. Regional Environmental Change, 18(5), 1481‑1493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1
36. lydia, D. (2023). The Phenomenon of Desertification : Causes, Consequences and Control Solutions: The Case of the El-Outaya Area in Biskra (Algeria). International Journal of Innovative Studies in Sociology and Humanities, 8, 326‑337. https://doi.org/10.20431/2456-4931.080134
37. Madani, A. Z., Hermassi, T., Taibi, S., Dakhlaoui, H., & Mechergui, M. (2024). Climate change impacts on the Chiffa basin (northern Algeria) using bias-corrected RCM data. Frontiers in Water, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2024.1507961
38. Maestre, F. T., Salguero-Gómez, R., & Quero, J. L. (2012). It is getting hotter in here : Determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367(1606), 3062‑3075. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0323
39. Mandal, D., & Roy, T. (2024). Climate Change Impact on Soil Erosion and Land Degradation. In H. Pathak, D. Chatterjee, S. Saha, & B. Das (Éds.), Climate Change Impacts on Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum (Vol. 78, p. 139‑161). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-7935-6_5
40. Massoud, E., Massoud, T., Waliser, D., Guan, B., & Sengupta, A. (2022). Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East. In A. Shaban (Éd.), Satellite Monitoring of Water Resources in the Middle East (p. 49‑70). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15549-9_4
41. Mesgari, E., Hosseini, S. A., Hemmesy, M. S., Houshyar, M., & Partoo, L. G. (2022). Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(10), 3607‑3619. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.195
42. Milly, P. C. D., & Dunne, K. A. (2020). Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation. Science, 367(6483), 1252‑1255. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9187
43. Mostephaoui, T., Bensaid, R., Sakaa, B., & Merdas, S. (2017). Apport des statistiques spatiales et les si g dans la caracterisation des sols gypseux dans une région aride : Cas d’El Hadjeb–Biskra. Courrier du Savoir, 22, 103‑112.
44. Nichane, M., & Khelil, M. A. (2014). CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET RESSOURCES EN EAU EN ALGÉRIE : VULNÉRABILITÉ, IMPACT ET pdf STRATÉGIE D’ADAPTATION. https://dspace.univ-ouargla.dz/jspui/handle/123456789/8144
45. Nichane, M., & Khelil, M. A. (2015). Changements climatiques et ressources en eau en Algérie vulnérabilité, impact et stratégie d’adaptation. LARHYSS Journal P-ISSN 1112-3680/E-ISSN 2521-9782, 21, 15‑23.
46. Ntoumos, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Zittis, G., Proestos, Y., & Lelieveld, J. (2022). Projected Air Temperature Extremes and Maximum Heat Conditions Over the Middle-East-North Africa (MENA) Region. Earth Systems and Environment, 6(2), 343‑359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-022-00297-y
47. Ojija, F., & Nicholaus, R. (2023). Impact of climate change on water resources and its implications on biodiversity : A review. East African Journal of Environment and Natural Resources, 6(1), 15‑27.
48. Omay, P. O., Muthama, N. J., Oludhe, C., Kinama, J. M., Artan, G., & Atheru, Z. (2023). Evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations over IGAD region of Eastern Africa. Discover Environment, 1(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-023-00012-2
49. O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., & Solecki, W. (2017). The roads ahead : Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 169‑180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004
50. O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., & Van Vuuren, D. P. (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research : The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 122(3), 387‑400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2
51. Phetheet, J., Hill, M. C., Barron, R. W., Rossi, M. W., Amanor-Boadu, V., Wu, H., & Kisekka, I. (2021). Consequences of climate change on food-energy-water systems in arid regions without agricultural adaptation, analyzed using FEWCalc and DSSAT. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 168, 105309.
52. Pongrácz, R., Divinszki, F., & Kis, A. (2024). Analysis of projected changes of heat days frequency within the Mediterranean region using CMIP6 simulations (Plinius18-129). Plinius18. Copernicus Meetings. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-129
53. Reimann, L., Merkens, J.-L., & Vafeidis, A. T. (2018). Regionalized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways : Narratives and spatial population projections for the Mediterranean coastal zone. Regional Environmental Change, 18(1), 235‑245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1189-2
54. Rohat, G., Flacke, J., Dao, H., & Van Maarseveen, M. (2018). Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 151(3‑4), 619‑636. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2318-8
55. Scholes, R. J. (2020). The future of semi-arid regions : A weak fabric unravels. Climate, 8(3), 43.
56. Sedrati, N. (2011). Origines et Caractéristiques Physico-Chimiques des Eaux de la Wilaya de Biskra-Sud-Est-Algérien [PhD Thesis]. Badji Mokhtar-Annaba University, Annaba, Algeria.
57. Shahsavari, F., Karandish, F., & Haghighatjou, P. (2019). Potentials for expanding dry-land agriculture under global warming in water-stressed regions : A quantitative assessment based on drought indices. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(1‑2), 1555‑1567. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2689-9
58. Shkolnik, I. M., Pigol’tsina, G. B., & Efimov, S. V. (2019). Agriculture in the Arid Regions of Eurasia and Global Warming : RCM Ensemble Projections for the Middle of the 21st Century. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 44(8), 540‑547. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373919080053
59. Sirigu, S., Corona, R., Ruiu, A., Zucca, R., & Montaldo, N. (2024). Land cover planning strategies and Water Use Optimization of a Mediterranean Basin Under Climate Change. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 19003. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024EGUGA..2619003S/abstract
60. Tomaszkiewicz, M. A. (2021). Future Seasonal Drought Conditions over the CORDEX-MENA/Arab Domain. Atmosphere, 12(7), Article 7. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070856
61. Tramblay, Y., & Somot, S. (2018). Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean. Climatic Change, 151(2), 289‑302. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5
62. Wang, Q., Sun, Y., Guan, Q., Du, Q., Zhang, Z., Zhang, J., & Zhang, E. (2024). Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model. Journal of Hydrology, 630, 130666.
63. Zhang, H., Li, X., Luo, Y., Chen, L., & Wang, M. (2024). Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon storage in the urban agglomeration within complex terrain : Multi-scale analyses under localized SSP-RCP narratives. Sustainable Cities and Society, 109, 105520.
64. Zhao, T., Chen, L., & Ma, Z. (2014). Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. Chinese Science Bulletin, 59(4), 412‑429. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-013-0003-x
65. Zittis, G., Bruggeman, A., & Camera, C. (2020). 21st century projections of extreme precipitation indicators for Cyprus. Atmosphere, 11(4), 343.