China’s Three Major Urban Agglomerations Based on the DEA-Malmquist Model Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Innovation Efficiency

In the Context of Globalization and the Knowledge Economy, Regional Innovation Efficiency Has Become a Core Indicator for Measuring a Country’s Innovation Capacity. This Study, Based on Science and Technology Statistical Data from 1991 to 2024, Constructs an “input-Output” Indicator System for Eight Provinces and Municipalities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta. Using the DEA-BCC Model and the Malmquist Index Model, Combined with Spatial Panel Analysis, This Study Conducts Both a Static Assessment and Dynamic Tracking of Regional Innovation Efficiency. The Study Finds That Four Provinces and Municipalities, Including Beijing and Tianjin, Achieve DEA-Effective Innovation Efficiency, While Regions Such as Hebei and Shanghai Experience Insufficient Scientific Paper Output or Redundant R&D Funding. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Grew by an Average of 2.1% Annually from 2015 to 2021. Technological Progress Has Contributed Significantly to Coastal Regions Such as Guangdong and Shanghai, While Central and Western Provinces Such as Anhui Rely on Improvements in Technological Efficiency. This Study Provides a Quantitative Basis for Identifying Regional Innovation Shortcomings, Optimizing Resource Allocation, and Formulating Differentiated Innovation Policies. It Holds Valuable Insights for Promoting Collaborative Innovation in Urban Agglomerations and High-Quality Regional Economic Development.